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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.6x - 2.8x | 2.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.5x - 2.8x | 2.6x |
| Fair Value | €59.83 - €68.53 | €64.18 |
| Upside | -17.6% - -5.6% | -11.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| The Mosaic Company | MOS | NYSE:MOS |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | APD | NYSE:APD |
| CVR Partners, LP | UAN | NYSE:UAN |
| Quaker Chemical Corporation | KWR | NYSE:KWR |
| AdvanSix Inc. | ASIX | NYSE:ASIX |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | C4F | DB:C4F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| MOS | APD | UAN | KWR | ASIX | C4F | |||
| NYSE:MOS | NYSE:APD | NYSE:UAN | NYSE:KWR | NYSE:ASIX | DB:C4F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -3.4% | 5.4% | -0.5% | 1.5% | -3.4% | -3.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -18.8% | -3.1% | -22.9% | -5.8% | -1.0% | -10.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.1% | 22.5% | 21.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 31.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 21.1% | 29.9% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 34.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 23.5% | 19.9% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 29.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | 23.8% | 19.9% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 29.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.00x | 6.30x | 2.45x | 1.44x | 0.62x | 2.99x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 18.0x | 26.5x | 12.3x | 13.3x | 15.9x | 10.3x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.75x | 5.45x | 1.54x | 1.19x | 0.40x | 2.27x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 1.44x | 6.30x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.84x | 2.99x | 4.08x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.57x | 2.71x | 2.84x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 5,936 | 5,936 | 5,936 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 15,257 | 16,060 | 16,863 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,210) | (4,210) | (4,210) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,047 | 11,850 | 12,653 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 169.5 | 169.5 | 169.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 65.16 | 69.90 | 74.63 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 60.06 | 64.42 | 68.79 | 72.62 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.3% | -11.3% | -5.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MOS | APD | UAN | KWR | ASIX | C4F | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,165 | 75,835 | 1,286 | 2,648 | 935 | 17,568 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 273 | 1,968 | 91 | 189 | 20 | 1,614 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,533 | 5,039 | 19 | 100 | 0 | 29 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,450) | (15,174) | (585) | (738) | (351) | (3,246) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (132) | (2,046) | (0) | (1) | 0 | (2,607) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,389 | 65,621 | 811 | 2,198 | 603 | 13,358 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 316.9 | 222.5 | 10.6 | 17.7 | 26.7 | 169.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 26.47 | 294.96 | 76.70 | 124.36 | 22.54 | 78.79 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.08 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 26.47 | 294.96 | 76.70 | 124.36 | 22.54 | 72.62 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.08 | |