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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.2% - 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Fair Value | €0.26 - €0.33 | €0.29 |
| Upside | 15.4% - 48.2% | 30.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 23,038 | 22,644 | 23,133 | 23,466 | 24,693 | 25,738 | 26,253 | 26,778 | 27,313 | 27,859 | 28,417 | |
| % Growth | -9.8% | -1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 3,611 | 4,226 | 4,454 | 4,761 | 4,464 | 4,558 | 4,649 | 4,742 | 4,837 | 4,934 | 5,032 | |
| % of Revenue | 15.7% | 18.7% | 19.3% | 20.3% | 18.1% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 4,226 | 4,454 | 4,761 | 4,464 | 4,558 | 4,649 | 4,742 | 4,837 | 4,934 | 5,032 | 5,032 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (2,173) | (2,018) | (2,122) | (2,233) | (2,327) | (2,374) | (2,421) | (2,470) | (2,519) | (2,569) | (1,644) | |
| EBIT | 2,053 | 2,436 | 2,639 | 2,231 | 2,231 | 2,275 | 2,321 | 2,367 | 2,415 | 2,463 | 3,389 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (513) | (609) | (660) | (558) | (558) | (569) | (580) | (592) | (604) | (616) | (847) | |
| NOPAT | 760 | 1,540 | 1,827 | 1,979 | 1,673 | 1,673 | 1,707 | 1,741 | 1,775 | 1,811 | 1,847 | 2,541 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,954) | (2,433) | (2,451) | (2,132) | (1,715) | (1,715) | (1,749) | (1,726) | (1,730) | (1,735) | (1,730) | (1,730) |
| NWC Investment | (254) | (40) | 50 | 34 | 124 | 106 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 22 |
| (+) D&A | 2,598 | 2,173 | 2,018 | 2,122 | 2,233 | 2,327 | 2,374 | 2,421 | 2,470 | 2,519 | 2,569 | 1,644 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,150 | 1,239 | 1,443 | 2,003 | 2,316 | 2,391 | 2,383 | 2,489 | 2,569 | 2,650 | 2,743 | 2,476 |
| % Growth | 8% | 16% | 39% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | -10% | |