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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | €0.62 - €0.69 | €0.66 |
| Upside | 2.3% - 13.4% | 7.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 246,457 | 260,393 | 272,434 | 281,906 | 287,544 | 293,295 | 299,161 | 305,144 | 311,247 | 317,472 | 323,822 |
| % Growth | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 22,148 | 24,999 | 26,919 | 27,269 | 27,815 | 28,371 | 28,938 | 29,517 | 30,107 | 30,710 | 31,324 |
| % of Revenue | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 24,999 | 26,919 | 27,269 | 27,815 | 28,371 | 28,938 | 29,517 | 30,107 | 30,710 | 31,324 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (7,571) | (7,156) | (10,123) | (10,325) | (10,532) | (10,743) | (10,957) | (11,177) | (11,400) | (11,628) | |
| EBIT | 17,428 | 19,763 | 17,146 | 17,489 | 17,839 | 18,196 | 18,560 | 18,931 | 19,309 | 19,696 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,917) | (2,174) | (1,886) | (1,924) | (1,962) | (2,002) | (2,042) | (2,082) | (2,124) | (2,167) | |
| NOPAT | 13,869 | 15,511 | 17,589 | 15,260 | 15,565 | 15,877 | 16,194 | 16,518 | 16,848 | 17,185 | 17,529 |
| Capital Expenditures | (10,185) | (9,616) | (8,656) | (10,551) | (10,762) | (10,977) | (10,763) | (10,834) | (10,858) | (10,818) | (10,837) |
| NWC Investment | (600) | (686) | (592) | (466) | (277) | (283) | (289) | (294) | (300) | (306) | (312) |
| (+) D&A | 6,565 | 7,571 | 7,156 | 10,123 | 10,325 | 10,532 | 10,743 | 10,957 | 11,177 | 11,400 | 11,628 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,649 | 12,781 | 15,497 | 14,366 | 14,852 | 15,149 | 15,885 | 16,347 | 16,867 | 17,461 | 18,008 |
| % Growth | 21% | -7% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | ||