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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.8% | 3.3% |
Fair Value | €16.62 - €23.78 | €19.56 |
Upside | -24.5% - 8.0% | -11.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
Revenue | 26,312 | 30,539 | 32,653 | 34,730 | 37,135 | 37,609 | |
% Growth | 14.0% | 16.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 1.3% | |
EBITDA | 3,251 | 4,249 | 4,548 | 4,921 | 5,498 | 6,117 | |
% of Revenue | 12.4% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 16.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 4,249 | 4,548 | 4,921 | 5,498 | 6,117 | 6,117 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (948) | (956) | (1,042) | (1,344) | (1,905) | (2,265) | |
EBIT | 3,301 | 3,593 | 3,879 | 4,154 | 4,212 | 3,852 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (462) | (503) | (543) | (582) | (590) | (539) | |
NOPAT | 2,127 | 2,839 | 3,090 | 3,336 | 3,572 | 3,622 | 3,313 |
Capital Expenditures | (990) | (1,089) | (1,158) | (1,168) | (1,165) | (2,384) | (2,384) |
NWC Investment | 296 | 386 | 193 | 190 | 220 | 43 | 112 |
(+) D&A | 778 | 948 | 956 | 1,042 | 1,344 | 1,905 | 2,265 |
Free Cash Flow | 2,210 | 3,085 | 3,081 | 3,399 | 3,971 | 3,187 | 3,305 |
% Growth | 40% | 0% | 10% | 17% | -20% | 4% |