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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.0% - 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Fair Value | €16.65 - €22.12 | €18.96 |
| Upside | -19.1% - 7.4% | -7.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 26,312 | 30,793 | 32,706 | 34,814 | 36,583 | 37,863 | 38,621 | 39,393 | 40,181 | 40,985 | 41,804 | |
| % Growth | 14.0% | 17.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 3,251 | 4,230 | 4,562 | 4,962 | 4,951 | 5,124 | 5,226 | 5,331 | 5,437 | 5,546 | 5,657 | |
| % of Revenue | 12.4% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 4,230 | 4,562 | 4,962 | 4,951 | 5,124 | 5,226 | 5,331 | 5,437 | 5,546 | 5,657 | 5,657 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (873) | (940) | (1,068) | (809) | (1,522) | (1,552) | (1,583) | (1,615) | (1,647) | (1,680) | (1,182) | |
| EBIT | 3,357 | 3,622 | 3,894 | 4,142 | 3,602 | 3,674 | 3,748 | 3,822 | 3,899 | 3,977 | 4,476 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (470) | (507) | (545) | (580) | (504) | (514) | (525) | (535) | (546) | (557) | (627) | |
| NOPAT | 2,127 | 2,887 | 3,115 | 3,349 | 3,562 | 3,098 | 3,160 | 3,223 | 3,287 | 3,353 | 3,420 | 3,849 |
| Capital Expenditures | (990) | (1,152) | (1,205) | (1,247) | (1,218) | (1,261) | (1,242) | (1,240) | (1,248) | (1,243) | (1,244) | (1,244) |
| NWC Investment | 296 | 409 | 175 | 193 | 162 | 117 | 69 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 75 | 57 |
| (+) D&A | 778 | 873 | 940 | 1,068 | 809 | 1,522 | 1,552 | 1,583 | 1,615 | 1,647 | 1,680 | 1,182 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,210 | 3,018 | 3,025 | 3,362 | 3,314 | 3,476 | 3,539 | 3,636 | 3,727 | 3,830 | 3,931 | 3,844 |
| % Growth | 37% | 0% | 11% | -1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | -2% | |