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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.8x - 11.8x | 10.8x |
Fair Value | €7.41 - €8.88 | €8.12 |
Upside | -0.1% - 19.8% | 9.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 451 | 607 | 660 | 755 | 792 | 860 | 930 | 870 | 885 | 872 | 917 |
% Growth | 36.0% | 34.8% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | -6.5% | 1.7% | -1.5% | 5.2% |
EBITDA | 2 | 96 | 160 | 201 | 211 | 238 | 262 | 245 | 249 | 246 | 263 |
% of Revenue | 0.4% | 15.8% | 24.2% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 27.7% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 28.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 96 | 160 | 201 | 211 | 238 | 262 | 245 | 249 | 246 | 263 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 12 | 27 | 49 | 93 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
EBIT | 103 | 182 | 245 | 298 | 334 | 255 | 239 | 242 | 239 | 256 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (14) | (25) | (34) | (42) | (47) | (36) | (33) | (34) | (33) | (36) | |
NOPAT | (1) | 89 | 156 | 211 | 256 | 287 | 219 | 205 | 209 | 205 | 220 |
Capital Expenditures | (1) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
NWC Investment | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | (1) | 0 | (0) | 1 |
(+) D&A | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Free Cash Flow | 4 | 95 | 161 | 217 | 262 | 294 | 227 | 209 | 214 | 210 | 227 |
% Growth | 2558% | 68% | 35% | 21% | 12% | -23% | -8% | 3% | -2% | 8% |