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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5.5x - 6.1x | 5.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 17.6x - 19.5x | 18.6x |
| Fair Value | €1.65 - €2.01 | €1.83 |
| Upside | -7.5% - 12.7% | 2.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Vermilion Energy Inc. | VET | TSX:VET |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | CNQ | TSX:CNQ |
| Obsidian Energy Ltd. | OBE | TSX:OBE |
| Range Resources Corporation | RRCO * | BMV:RRCO* |
| APA Corporation | APA * | BMV:APA* |
| Baytex Energy Corp. | B5X | DB:B5X |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VET | CNQ | OBE | RRCO * | APA * | B5X | ||
| TSX:VET | TSX:CNQ | TSX:OBE | BMV:RRCO* | BMV:APA* | DB:B5X | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -7.5% | 11.9% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -54.3% | 0.8% | NM- | -12.4% | -10.5% | -24.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 138.0% | 15.5% | -242.2% | -8.0% | -30.9% | 499.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 29.7% | 24.5% | 18.0% | 15.6% | 9.0% | 31.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -15.7% | 29.0% | 27.0% | 52.2% | 42.6% | -7.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 27.3% | -30.7% | 17.4% | 21.8% | 23.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 29.4% | -29.0% | 24.8% | 21.7% | 24.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.93x | 2.84x | 1.22x | 3.48x | 1.31x | 1.31x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 6.0x | 2.0x | 9.1x | 2.2x | 2.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 22.8x | 9.7x | -4.2x | 14.0x | 6.1x | 5.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -4.2x | 9.7x | 22.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -95.1x | 3.2x | 7.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.5x | 5.8x | 6.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 811 | 811 | 811 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,501 | 4,738 | 4,975 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,192) | (2,192) | (2,192) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,309 | 2,546 | 2,782 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 768.3 | 768.3 | 768.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.00 | 3.31 | 3.62 | ||||
| FX Rate: CAD/EUR | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.87 | 2.06 | 2.25 | 1.78 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.9% | 15.7% | 26.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VET | CNQ | OBE | RRCO * | APA * | B5X | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,599 | 108,773 | 922 | 15,982 | 13,019 | 4,392 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 24 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 6 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,944) | (18,834) | (357) | (1,321) | (5,491) | (2,198) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,027) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,757 | 90,032 | 565 | 14,661 | 6,568 | 2,200 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 154.0 | 2,093.3 | 70.5 | 344.8 | 360.8 | 768.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 11.41 | 43.01 | 8.01 | 42.52 | 18.20 | 2.86 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.61 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.41 | 43.01 | 8.01 | 788.00 | 337.34 | 1.78 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | MXN | MXN | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.61 | |
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