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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5.6x - 6.1x | 5.8x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 16.8x - 18.5x | 17.6x |
Fair Value | €1.62 - €1.98 | €1.80 |
Upside | 7.1% - 31.1% | 19.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Vermilion Energy Inc. | VET | TSX:VET |
Canadian Natural Resources Limited | CNQ | TSX:CNQ |
Obsidian Energy Ltd. | OBE | TSX:OBE |
Range Resources Corporation | RRCO * | BMV:RRCO* |
APA Corporation | APA * | BMV:APA* |
Baytex Energy Corp. | B5X | DB:B5X |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
VET | CNQ | OBE | RRCO * | APA * | B5X | ||
TSX:VET | TSX:CNQ | TSX:OBE | BMV:RRCO* | BMV:APA* | DB:B5X | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -7.5% | 11.9% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | -54.3% | 0.8% | NM- | -12.4% | -10.5% | -24.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 138.0% | 15.5% | -242.2% | -51.1% | -30.9% | 499.8% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 29.7% | 24.5% | 18.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 31.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | -15.7% | 29.0% | 27.0% | 52.2% | 42.6% | -7.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 27.3% | -30.7% | 17.4% | 21.8% | 23.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 29.4% | -29.0% | 15.6% | 21.7% | 24.3% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.77x | 2.83x | 1.09x | 4.23x | 1.26x | 1.20x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 6.0x | 1.9x | 14.2x | 2.1x | 1.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 20.9x | 9.6x | -3.8x | 27.2x | 5.8x | 5.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -3.8x | 9.6x | 27.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -95.1x | 3.2x | 7.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.6x | 5.8x | 6.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 811 | 811 | 811 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,504 | 4,741 | 4,978 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,192) | (2,192) | (2,192) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,312 | 2,549 | 2,786 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 768.6 | 768.6 | 768.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 3.01 | 3.32 | 3.62 | ||||
FX Rate: CAD/EUR | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.93 | 2.13 | 2.33 | 1.51 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 27.8% | 40.9% | 54.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | VET | CNQ | OBE | RRCO * | APA * | B5X | |
Enterprise Value | 3,289 | 108,543 | 826 | 12,726 | 12,844 | 4,001 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 24 | 93 | 0 | 345 | 67 | 6 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (1,944) | (18,834) | (357) | (1,800) | (5,491) | (2,198) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,027) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,448 | 89,802 | 469 | 11,271 | 6,393 | 1,809 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 154.5 | 2,093.3 | 70.5 | 317.6 | 360.8 | 768.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 9.37 | 42.90 | 6.65 | 35.49 | 17.72 | 2.35 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.56 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.37 | 42.90 | 6.65 | 691.15 | 345.00 | 1.51 | |
Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | MXN | MXN | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.56 |