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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 35.0x - 37.0x | 36.0x |
| Fair Value | €0.50 - €0.55 | €0.52 |
| Upside | -18.7% - -12.0% | -15.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 4,565 | 4,920 | 5,263 | 5,566 | 5,761 | 5,876 |
| % Growth | -3.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | -260 | -93 | 6 | 100 | 104 | 106 |
| % of Revenue | -5.7% | -1.9% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | (93) | 6 | 100 | 104 | 106 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0 | |
| D&A | (40) | (52) | (63) | (65) | (20) | |
| EBIT | (133) | (46) | 37 | 109 | 85 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | 0 | (14) | (41) | (32) | |
| NOPAT | (170) | (133) | (46) | 23 | 68 | 53 |
| Capital Expenditures | (8) | (160) | (160) | (160) | (100) | (100) |
| NWC Investment | 4 | (9) | (9) | (8) | (5) | (3) |
| (+) D&A | 15 | 40 | 52 | 63 | 65 | 20 |
| Free Cash Flow | (160) | (262) | (163) | (82) | 28 | (30) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |