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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.5% - 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Fair Value | €72.23 - €91.79 | €80.71 |
| Upside | 12.7% - 43.2% | 25.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | |
| Revenue | 4,178 | 4,002 | 3,598 | 3,830 | 4,223 | 4,781 | |
| % Growth | -12.5% | -4.2% | -10.1% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 13.2% | |
| EBITDA | 1,053 | 1,245 | 947 | 1,161 | 1,400 | 1,484 | |
| % of Revenue | 25.2% | 31.1% | 26.3% | 30.3% | 33.2% | 31.0% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (USD in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,245 | 947 | 1,161 | 1,400 | 1,484 | 1,484 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (277) | (250) | (334) | (623) | (529) | (171) | |
| EBIT | 968 | 698 | 827 | 777 | 955 | 1,313 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (87) | (63) | (74) | (70) | (86) | (118) | |
| NOPAT | 717 | 881 | 635 | 753 | 707 | 869 | 1,194 |
| Capital Expenditures | (157) | (190) | (173) | (166) | (202) | (180) | (180) |
| NWC Investment | 153 | 45 | 104 | (60) | (101) | (143) | (37) |
| (+) D&A | 266 | 277 | 250 | 334 | 623 | 529 | 171 |
| Free Cash Flow | 978 | 1,014 | 815 | 861 | 1,027 | 1,074 | 1,149 |
| % Growth | 4% | -20% | 6% | 19% | 5% | 7% | |