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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 22.1x - 24.4x | 23.3x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 17.3x - 19.1x | 18.2x |
Fair Value | €490.61 - €538.38 | €514.50 |
Upside | -5.1% - 4.1% | -0.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
ASML Holding N.V. | ASML | ENXTAM:ASML |
BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | BESI | ENXTAM:BESI |
SUSS MicroTec SE | SMHN | DB:SMHN |
AIXTRON SE | AIXA | DB:AIXA |
Disco Corporation | 6146 | TSE:6146 |
ASM International NV | AVS | DB:AVS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
ASML | BESI | SMHN | AIXA | 6146 | AVS | ||
ENXTAM:ASML | ENXTAM:BESI | DB:SMHN | DB:AIXA | TSE:6146 | DB:AVS | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 24.9% | 16.0% | 61.7% | 26.0% | 33.0% | 16.1% | |
3Y CAGR | 12.2% | -14.8% | 48.1% | 9.1% | 21.4% | 19.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 25.8% | -7.4% | 121.5% | -17.0% | 35.0% | 32.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 34.3% | 38.5% | 12.2% | 21.6% | 39.6% | 30.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 35.2% | 38.2% | 10.2% | 25.6% | 43.1% | 29.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 34.9% | 33.7% | 19.7% | 22.7% | 45.5% | 30.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 36.6% | 33.7% | 19.7% | 22.6% | 45.5% | 31.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 8.15x | 15.89x | 1.38x | 2.35x | 9.53x | 7.40x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.3x | 47.2x | 7.0x | 10.4x | 21.0x | 23.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 24.1x | 49.5x | 7.4x | 11.4x | 22.5x | 26.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 21.0x | 47.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.1x | 27.2x | 36.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.1x | 23.3x | 24.4x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 992 | 992 | 992 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 21,922 | 23,075 | 24,229 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,807 | 1,807 | 1,807 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 23,729 | 24,883 | 26,037 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 49.1 | 49.1 | 49.1 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 483.19 | 506.68 | 530.18 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 483.19 | 506.68 | 530.18 | 517.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -6.5% | -2.0% | 2.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | ASML | BESI | SMHN | AIXA | 6146 | AVS | |
Enterprise Value | 249,430 | 9,620 | 683 | 1,444 | 3,741,177 | 23,582 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,104 | 686 | 144 | 93 | 229,167 | 1,145 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 939 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,372 | 682 | |
(-) Debt | (3,681) | (538) | (14) | (4) | 0 | (20) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (348) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 255,792 | 9,767 | 813 | 1,532 | 3,977,368 | 25,389 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 393.3 | 79.3 | 19.1 | 112.7 | 108.4 | 49.1 | |
Implied Stock Price | 650.40 | 123.15 | 42.54 | 13.60 | 36,690.00 | 517.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 650.40 | 123.15 | 42.54 | 13.60 | 36,690.00 | 517.00 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | JPY | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |