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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.2x - 10.2x | 9.2x |
Fair Value | €52.75 - €61.93 | €57.18 |
Upside | 25.6% - 47.5% | 36.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 6,581 | 6,843 | 7,230 | 7,558 | 7,709 | 7,863 | 8,020 | 8,181 | 8,344 | 8,511 | 8,681 |
% Growth | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 148 | 183 | 236 | 277 | 282 | 288 | 294 | 300 | 306 | 312 | 318 |
% of Revenue | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 183 | 236 | 277 | 282 | 288 | 294 | 300 | 306 | 312 | 318 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (139) | (143) | (144) | (147) | (150) | (153) | (156) | (159) | (162) | (165) | |
EBIT | 44 | 94 | 133 | 136 | 138 | 141 | 144 | 147 | 150 | 153 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (12) | (24) | (35) | (35) | (36) | (37) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (40) | |
NOPAT | 87 | 33 | 69 | 98 | 100 | 102 | 104 | 107 | 109 | 111 | 113 |
Capital Expenditures | (38) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (49) | (50) | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) |
NWC Investment | 7 | 18 | 27 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
(+) D&A | 31 | 139 | 143 | 144 | 147 | 150 | 153 | 156 | 159 | 162 | 165 |
Free Cash Flow | 86 | 142 | 191 | 217 | 209 | 213 | 219 | 224 | 229 | 235 | 241 |
% Growth | 65% | 34% | 14% | -4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |