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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.2% - 1.3% | 0.8% |
Fair Value | €16.13 - €19.93 | €17.76 |
Upside | 68.3% - 108.0% | 85.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
(CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
Revenue | 70,826 | 78,439 | 86,488 | 94,078 | 104,507 | 113,835 | 117,819 | 120,176 | 122,579 | 125,031 | 127,531 | |
% Growth | 13.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
EBITDA | 17,666 | 23,717 | 26,280 | 28,286 | 34,792 | 37,328 | 38,634 | 39,407 | 40,195 | 40,999 | 41,819 | |
% of Revenue | 24.9% | 30.2% | 30.4% | 30.1% | 33.3% | 32.8% | 32.8% | 32.8% | 32.8% | 32.8% | 32.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
(CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 23,717 | 26,280 | 28,286 | 34,792 | 37,328 | 38,634 | 39,407 | 40,195 | 40,999 | 41,819 | 41,819 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (5,434) | (5,946) | (5,863) | (10,391) | (10,731) | (11,107) | (11,329) | (11,555) | (11,786) | (12,022) | (4,624) | |
EBIT | 18,283 | 20,334 | 22,423 | 24,401 | 26,597 | 27,528 | 28,078 | 28,640 | 29,213 | 29,797 | 37,195 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (4,936) | (5,490) | (6,054) | (6,588) | (7,181) | (7,433) | (7,581) | (7,733) | (7,887) | (8,045) | (10,043) | |
NOPAT | 12,111 | 13,347 | 14,844 | 16,369 | 17,813 | 19,416 | 20,095 | 20,497 | 20,907 | 21,325 | 21,752 | 27,152 |
Capital Expenditures | (2,258) | (2,103) | (2,052) | (2,011) | (5,970) | (6,240) | (4,740) | (4,835) | (4,932) | (4,836) | (4,867) | (4,867) |
NWC Investment | (57) | (51) | (54) | (51) | (71) | (63) | (27) | (16) | (16) | (17) | (17) | (6) |
(+) D&A | 1,075 | 5,434 | 5,946 | 5,863 | 10,391 | 10,731 | 11,107 | 11,329 | 11,555 | 11,786 | 12,022 | 4,624 |
Free Cash Flow | 10,871 | 16,626 | 18,683 | 20,169 | 22,163 | 23,844 | 26,435 | 26,975 | 27,515 | 28,260 | 28,890 | 26,903 |
% Growth | 53% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | -7% |