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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11.2x - 12.4x | 11.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 8.4x | 8.0x |
| Fair Value | €131.52 - €142.60 | €137.06 |
| Upside | -15.7% - -8.6% | -12.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Leonardo S.p.a. | LDO | BIT:LDO |
| Thales S.A. | HO | ENXTPA:HO |
| Safran SA | SAF | ENXTPA:SAF |
| Rheinmetall AG | RHM | DB:RHM |
| Saab AB (publ) | SAAB B | OM:SAABB |
| Airbus SE | AIR | DB:AIR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| LDO | HO | SAF | RHM | SAAB B | AIR | ||
| BIT:LDO | ENXTPA:HO | ENXTPA:SAF | DB:RHM | OM:SAABB | DB:AIR | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 19.6% | 14.0% | 15.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 11.4% | 9.5% | 27.5% | 29.8% | 21.0% | 0.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.4% | 12.8% | 20.6% | 57.6% | 20.6% | 11.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.8% | 12.4% | 18.1% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.6% | 12.9% | 18.7% | 15.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.5% | 13.1% | 19.2% | 18.0% | 10.5% | 9.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.5% | 13.1% | 19.2% | 18.0% | 10.8% | 10.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.64x | 2.59x | 3.53x | 7.18x | 3.72x | 1.45x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.7x | 19.8x | 18.4x | 39.9x | 34.4x | 14.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 20.7x | 30.1x | 24.2x | 49.3x | 42.8x | 21.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.7x | 19.8x | 39.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -82.8x | 11.1x | 17.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.2x | 11.8x | 12.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 7,000 | 7,000 | 7,000 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 78,564 | 82,699 | 86,834 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 20,712 | 20,712 | 20,712 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 99,276 | 103,411 | 107,546 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 787.3 | 787.3 | 787.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 126.09 | 131.34 | 136.60 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 126.09 | 131.34 | 136.60 | 156.06 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.2% | -15.8% | -12.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | LDO | HO | SAF | RHM | SAAB B | AIR | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,210 | 53,213 | 97,817 | 69,062 | 242,815 | 102,159 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,556 | 4,768 | 6,519 | 1,253 | 10,385 | 17,432 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,899 | 1,809 | 2,692 | 415 | 5,446 | 17,640 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,700) | (7,823) | (5,078) | (2,423) | (10,174) | (14,269) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,210) | (43) | (549) | (414) | (280) | (91) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 27,755 | 51,924 | 101,401 | 67,893 | 248,192 | 122,871 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 576.4 | 205.3 | 416.8 | 43.4 | 536.1 | 787.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 48.15 | 252.90 | 243.30 | 1,563.00 | 463.00 | 156.06 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 48.15 | 252.90 | 243.30 | 1,563.00 | 463.00 | 156.06 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | SEK | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |