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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.9x - 18.7x | 17.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.2x - 6.9x | 6.6x |
| Fair Value | €6.57 - €7.79 | €7.18 |
| Upside | -33.4% - -21.0% | -27.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Aperam S.A. | APAM | BME:APAM |
| Salzgitter AG | SZG | DB:SZG |
| thyssenkrupp AG | TKA | DB:TKA |
| Voestalpine AG | VAS | DB:VAS |
| Outokumpu Oyj | OUT1V | HLSE:OUT1V |
| Acerinox, S.A. | ACE1 | DB:ACE1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| APAM | SZG | TKA | VAS | OUT1V | ACE1 | ||
| BME:APAM | DB:SZG | DB:TKA | DB:VAS | HLSE:OUT1V | DB:ACE1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -13.8% | NM- | NM- | 5.2% | NM- | 0.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -54.3% | -53.8% | NM- | -34.4% | NM- | -36.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 272.2% | 92.4% | 114.2% | -17.0% | 32.5% | -49.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.2% | 1.4% | -3.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 8.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.6% | 0.4% | -4.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 8.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.4% | 2.6% | -1.1% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.2% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2.6% | -1.3% | 2.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.48x | 0.03x | 0.08x | 0.41x | 0.27x | 0.66x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.8x | 1.4x | 3.4x | 5.7x | 14.5x | 11.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 21.9x | -39.4x | 9.7x | 15.5x | -20.5x | 22.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -39.4x | 9.7x | 21.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.4x | 6.0x | 28.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.9x | 17.8x | 18.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 166 | 166 | 166 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,802 | 2,950 | 3,097 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,243) | (1,243) | (1,243) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,559 | 1,706 | 1,854 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 249.2 | 249.2 | 249.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.25 | 6.85 | 7.44 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.25 | 6.85 | 7.44 | 9.87 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -36.6% | -30.6% | -24.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | APAM | SZG | TKA | VAS | OUT1V | ACE1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,987 | 334 | 2,687 | 6,483 | 1,577 | 3,702 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 239 | 892 | 4,828 | 1,086 | 307 | 1,153 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4 | 1,705 | 312 | 332 | 78 | 10 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,382) | (1,695) | (863) | (3,485) | (477) | (2,365) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (15) | (9) | (779) | (240) | 0 | (41) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,833 | 1,228 | 6,185 | 4,177 | 1,485 | 2,459 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 72.3 | 54.1 | 622.5 | 171.5 | 452.1 | 249.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 25.36 | 22.70 | 9.94 | 24.36 | 3.28 | 9.87 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 25.36 | 22.70 | 9.94 | 24.36 | 3.28 | 9.87 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |