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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
Fair Value | €83.13 - €92.10 | €87.54 |
Upside | 72.1% - 90.7% | 81.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 |
Revenue | 511 | 523 | 550 | 576 | 587 | 599 |
% Growth | 4.8% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 39 | 56 | 65 | 71 | 73 | 74 |
% of Revenue | 7.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | |
EBITDA | 56 | 65 | 71 | 73 | 74 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (34) | (29) | (30) | (30) | (31) | |
EBIT | 22 | 35 | 42 | 43 | 44 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (6) | (10) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
NOPAT | 19 | 16 | 26 | 30 | 31 | 31 |
Capital Expenditures | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
NWC Investment | (1) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) |
(+) D&A | 12 | 34 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 |
Free Cash Flow | 27 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 55 | 56 |
% Growth | 66% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 2% |