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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9.3x - 10.2x | 9.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.4x - 8.1x | 7.8x |
| Fair Value | €27.81 - €31.31 | €29.56 |
| Upside | -20.5% - -10.5% | -15.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. | CTT | ENXTLS:CTT |
| Deufol SE | DE10 | HMSE:DE10 |
| Compagnie de l'Odet | ODET | ENXTPA:ODET |
| Müller - Die lila Logistik SE | MLL | DB:MLL |
| Österreichische Post AG | 1POST | BIT:1POST |
| A.L.A. società per azioni | 8WD | DB:8WD |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CTT | DE10 | ODET | MLL | 1POST | 8WD | ||
| ENXTLS:CTT | HMSE:DE10 | ENXTPA:ODET | DB:MLL | BIT:1POST | DB:8WD | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 22.2% | 42.5% | NM- | 8.6% | -1.3% | 27.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 49.7% | 25.3% | NM- | 19.9% | 1.7% | 39.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 71.4% | -6.4% | -166.6% | 1188.5% | 6.6% | 44.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.5% | 4.3% | -3.6% | -0.2% | 5.6% | 9.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.0% | 3.8% | -9.7% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.4% | 3.8% | -9.7% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 10.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | -0.90x | 0.42x | 3.22x | 0.53x | 0.87x | 1.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -6.5x | 7.6x | 21.2x | 9.1x | 9.4x | 10.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -7.3x | 11.1x | -33.3x | 19.8x | 16.2x | 12.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -33.3x | 11.1x | 19.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 10.0x | 12.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 9.7x | 10.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 31 | 31 | 31 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 284 | 299 | 314 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (49) | (49) | (49) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 235 | 250 | 265 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 26.00 | 27.66 | 29.32 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.00 | 27.66 | 29.32 | 35.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.7% | -21.0% | -16.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CTT | DE10 | ODET | MLL | 1POST | 8WD | |
| Enterprise Value | (1,436) | 131 | (6,543) | 131 | 2,656 | 366 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,580 | 13 | 5,908 | 17 | 119 | 31 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 366 | 3 | 16,575 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (476) | (95) | (922) | (113) | (745) | (81) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (64) | (3) | (8,820) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 971 | 48 | 6,198 | 35 | 2,030 | 316 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 128.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 67.6 | 9.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.56 | 5.70 | 1,464.00 | 4.46 | 30.05 | 35.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.56 | 5.70 | 1,464.00 | 4.46 | 30.05 | 35.00 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |