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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 10.9x - 12.0x | 11.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.7x - 10.8x | 10.3x |
| Fair Value | €32.02 - €35.47 | €33.75 |
| Upside | 24.5% - 37.9% | 31.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | 2503 | TSE:2503 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. | 2579 | TSE:2579 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| The Coca-Cola Company | KO_KZ | KAS:KO_KZ |
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 7SN | DB:7SN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2503 | 2502 | 2579 | KDP | KO_KZ | 7SN | ||
| TSE:2503 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2579 | NasdaqGS:KDP | KAS:KO_KZ | DB:7SN | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.5% | 4.9% | -6.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 9.2% | 10.3% | NM- | 3.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -5.1% | 4.2% | 200.7% | 0.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.4% | 8.6% | -0.2% | 22.7% | 29.6% | 9.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.6% | 9.1% | 0.4% | 21.7% | 29.0% | 9.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.1% | 8.9% | 1.5% | 22.1% | 30.4% | 10.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.1% | 8.9% | NA | 22.1% | 30.5% | 9.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 1.37x | 0.53x | 3.99x | 6.78x | 0.86x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 9.6x | 7.8x | 14.9x | 20.7x | 6.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.4x | 15.4x | 31.8x | 18.1x | 22.2x | 8.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 13.4x | 18.1x | 31.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 10.6x | 11.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 10.9x | 11.4x | 12.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 163,546 | 163,546 | 163,546 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,776,501 | 1,870,001 | 1,963,501 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (41,892) | (41,892) | (41,892) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,734,609 | 1,828,109 | 1,921,609 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 309.0 | 309.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5,613.62 | 5,916.21 | 6,218.80 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 172.9 | 172.9 | 172.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 32.48 | 34.23 | 35.98 | 25.72 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 26.3% | 33.1% | 39.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2503 | 2502 | 2579 | KDP | KO_KZ | 7SN | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,584,373 | 4,038,858 | 470,209 | 61,984 | 323,070 | 1,415,684 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 122,515 | 68,916 | 64,300 | 653 | 13,787 | 129,279 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 229,795 | 222,178 | 393 | 1,599 | 20,484 | 14,864 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,034,585) | (1,505,137) | (133,002) | (18,682) | (49,971) | (81,245) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (280,900) | (3,964) | (217) | 0 | (1,552) | (104,790) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,621,198 | 2,820,851 | 401,683 | 45,554 | 305,818 | 1,373,792 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 810.0 | 1,502.9 | 170.8 | 1,358.2 | 4,304.3 | 309.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,001.50 | 1,877.00 | 2,351.50 | 33.54 | 71.05 | 4,445.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.86 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,001.50 | 1,877.00 | 2,351.50 | 33.54 | 71.05 | 25.72 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.86 | |