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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.2% - 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Fair Value | €43.45 - €55.99 | €48.78 |
| Upside | 49.2% - 92.3% | 67.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,696,765 | 1,764,546 | 1,826,504 | 1,869,784 | 1,948,100 | 2,027,100 | 2,067,642 | 2,108,995 | 2,151,175 | 2,194,198 | 2,238,082 | |
| % Growth | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 229,551 | 251,684 | 270,300 | 281,433 | 288,363 | 300,057 | 306,058 | 312,179 | 318,423 | 324,791 | 331,287 | |
| % of Revenue | 13.5% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 251,684 | 270,300 | 281,433 | 288,363 | 300,057 | 306,058 | 312,179 | 318,423 | 324,791 | 331,287 | 331,287 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (85,684) | (86,700) | (89,100) | (95,163) | (91,257) | (93,082) | (94,944) | (96,842) | (98,779) | (100,755) | (79,289) | |
| EBIT | 166,000 | 183,600 | 192,333 | 193,200 | 208,800 | 212,976 | 217,236 | 221,580 | 226,012 | 230,532 | 251,998 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (46,480) | (51,408) | (53,853) | (54,096) | (58,464) | (59,633) | (60,826) | (62,042) | (63,283) | (64,549) | (70,559) | |
| NOPAT | 122,383 | 119,520 | 132,192 | 138,480 | 139,104 | 150,336 | 153,343 | 156,410 | 159,538 | 162,729 | 165,983 | 181,439 |
| Capital Expenditures | (108,307) | (130,550) | (80,000) | (89,000) | (98,000) | (81,100) | (82,722) | (84,376) | (82,733) | (83,277) | (83,462) | (83,462) |
| NWC Investment | (430) | (277) | (253) | (177) | (320) | (323) | (166) | (169) | (172) | (176) | (179) | (69) |
| (+) D&A | 59,575 | 85,684 | 86,700 | 89,100 | 95,163 | 91,257 | 93,082 | 94,944 | 96,842 | 98,779 | 100,755 | 79,289 |
| Free Cash Flow | 73,221 | 74,376 | 138,639 | 138,403 | 135,947 | 160,170 | 163,537 | 166,808 | 173,475 | 178,055 | 183,096 | 177,197 |
| % Growth | 2% | 86% | 0% | -2% | 18% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | -3% | |