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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 8.9x | 7.9x |
| Fair Value | €41.82 - €51.88 | €46.66 |
| Upside | 37.2% - 70.2% | 53.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 1,696,765 | 1,752,900 | 1,828,800 | 1,869,784 | 1,949,550 | 2,012,000 | 2,052,240 | 2,093,285 | 2,135,150 | 2,177,854 | 2,221,411 |
| % Growth | 6.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 229,551 | 248,400 | 269,311 | 279,700 | 290,182 | 303,000 | 309,060 | 315,241 | 321,546 | 327,977 | 334,536 |
| % of Revenue | 13.5% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 248,400 | 269,311 | 279,700 | 290,182 | 303,000 | 309,060 | 315,241 | 321,546 | 327,977 | 334,536 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (84,208) | (89,700) | (89,700) | (92,582) | (90,000) | (91,800) | (93,636) | (95,509) | (97,419) | (99,367) | |
| EBIT | 164,192 | 179,611 | 190,000 | 197,600 | 213,000 | 217,260 | 221,605 | 226,037 | 230,558 | 235,169 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (45,974) | (50,291) | (53,200) | (55,328) | (59,640) | (60,833) | (62,049) | (63,290) | (64,556) | (65,847) | |
| NOPAT | 122,383 | 118,218 | 129,320 | 136,800 | 142,272 | 153,360 | 156,427 | 159,556 | 162,747 | 166,002 | 169,322 |
| Capital Expenditures | (108,307) | (126,000) | (90,000) | (94,000) | (99,000) | (100,000) | (97,667) | (98,889) | (98,852) | (98,469) | (98,737) |
| NWC Investment | (430) | (230) | (310) | (168) | (326) | (255) | (165) | (168) | (171) | (175) | (178) |
| (+) D&A | 59,575 | 84,208 | 89,700 | 89,700 | 92,582 | 90,000 | 91,800 | 93,636 | 95,509 | 97,419 | 99,367 |
| Free Cash Flow | 73,221 | 76,197 | 128,709 | 132,332 | 135,527 | 143,105 | 150,396 | 154,135 | 159,233 | 164,777 | 169,774 |
| % Growth | 4% | 69% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |