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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.3x - 12.3x | 11.3x |
Fair Value | €2.93 - €3.40 | €3.16 |
Upside | 17.2% - 36.0% | 26.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 3,058 | 3,088 | 3,040 | 3,140 | 3,203 | 3,267 | 3,332 | 3,399 | 3,467 | 3,536 | 3,607 |
% Growth | 25.9% | 1.0% | -1.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,098 | 1,041 | 796 | 826 | 842 | 859 | 876 | 894 | 912 | 930 | 949 |
% of Revenue | 35.9% | 33.7% | 26.2% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,041 | 796 | 826 | 842 | 859 | 876 | 894 | 912 | 930 | 949 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (253) | (166) | (227) | (232) | (236) | (241) | (246) | (251) | (256) | (261) | |
EBIT | 787 | 630 | 599 | 611 | 623 | 635 | 648 | 661 | 674 | 688 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (110) | (88) | (84) | (86) | (87) | (89) | (91) | (93) | (94) | (96) | |
NOPAT | 858 | 677 | 542 | 515 | 525 | 536 | 547 | 557 | 569 | 580 | 592 |
Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (150) | (140) | (190) | (194) | (198) | (194) | (195) | (196) | (195) | (195) |
NWC Investment | 26 | 1 | (2) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
(+) D&A | 100 | 253 | 166 | 227 | 232 | 236 | 241 | 246 | 251 | 256 | 261 |
Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 782 | 566 | 556 | 566 | 577 | 596 | 611 | 627 | 644 | 660 |
% Growth | NM | -28% | -2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% |