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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.8x - 11.8x | 10.8x |
Fair Value | €25.69 - €32.18 | €28.82 |
Upside | -8.1% - 15.2% | 3.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
Revenue | 12,986 | 1,807 | 1,815 | 1,854 | 1,886 | 1,969 | 2,008 | 2,049 | 2,090 | 2,131 | 2,174 |
% Growth | 4.5% | -86.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 411 | 499 | 475 | 491 | 501 | 493 | 502 | 513 | 523 | 533 | 544 |
% of Revenue | 3.2% | 27.6% | 26.2% | 26.5% | 26.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | |
EBITDA | 499 | 475 | 491 | 501 | 493 | 502 | 513 | 523 | 533 | 544 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (179) | (174) | (177) | (134) | (125) | (128) | (130) | (133) | (135) | (138) | |
EBIT | 320 | 302 | 314 | 367 | 368 | 375 | 382 | 390 | 398 | 406 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (83) | (78) | (82) | (95) | (96) | (97) | (99) | (101) | (103) | (105) | |
NOPAT | 237 | 237 | 223 | 232 | 272 | 272 | 277 | 283 | 289 | 294 | 300 |
Capital Expenditures | (39) | (50) | (48) | (49) | (37) | (56) | (47) | (47) | (48) | (47) | (47) |
NWC Investment | 71 | (1,413) | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
(+) D&A | 92 | 179 | 174 | 177 | 134 | 125 | 128 | 130 | 133 | 135 | 138 |
Free Cash Flow | 360 | (1,048) | 350 | 365 | 373 | 351 | 363 | 371 | 379 | 388 | 397 |
% Growth | NM | NM | 4% | 2% | -6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |