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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 2.1x - 2.3x | 2.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 3.0x |
| Fair Value | €4.87 - €5.51 | €5.19 |
| Upside | 6.3% - 20.2% | 13.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ZE PAK SA | ZEP | WSE:ZEP |
| PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. | PGE | WSE:PGE |
| Energa SA | ENG | WSE:ENG |
| TAURON Polska Energia S.A. | TPE | WSE:TPE |
| ECB S.A. | ECB | WSE:ECB |
| ENEA S.A. | 58S | DB:58S |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ZEP | PGE | ENG | TPE | ECB | 58S | ||
| WSE:ZEP | WSE:PGE | WSE:ENG | WSE:TPE | WSE:ECB | DB:58S | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -5.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 48.6% | 15.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 93.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 13.5% | NM- | 24.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -83.8% | 39.2% | 97.9% | 35.7% | 114.4% | -4.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 14.0% | -43.0% | 15.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.1% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.4% | -76.0% | 14.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.6% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 17.4% | 58.5% | 21.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.2% | 19.8% | 13.9% | 18.7% | 11.6% | 22.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.04x | 0.50x | 0.78x | 0.81x | 1.13x | 0.43x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.5x | 2.5x | 5.6x | 4.3x | 9.8x | 2.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 0.6x | 3.7x | 9.3x | 6.3x | 10.6x | 2.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.5x | 4.3x | 9.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.9x | 1.7x | 2.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.1x | 2.2x | 2.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 6,769 | 6,769 | 6,769 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,008 | 14,745 | 15,483 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,661) | (2,661) | (2,661) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,347 | 12,084 | 12,821 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 529.7 | 529.7 | 529.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 21.42 | 22.81 | 24.20 | ||||
| FX Rate: PLN/EUR | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.02 | 5.35 | 5.68 | 4.59 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.5% | 16.6% | 23.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ZEP | PGE | ENG | TPE | ECB | 58S | |
| Enterprise Value | 79 | 32,767 | 16,524 | 28,680 | 91 | 13,020 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 413 | 5,857 | 1,763 | 1,730 | 6 | 5,312 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 797 | 485 | 97 | 197 | 0 | 145 | |
| (-) Debt | (28) | (11,553) | (12,284) | (15,304) | (3) | (6,991) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (1,114) | (883) | (42) | 0 | (1,127) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,258 | 26,442 | 5,217 | 15,261 | 93 | 10,359 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 50.8 | 2,243.7 | 414.1 | 1,752.5 | 3.0 | 529.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 24.75 | 11.79 | 12.60 | 8.71 | 31.25 | 19.56 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.26 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 24.75 | 11.79 | 12.60 | 8.71 | 31.25 | 4.59 | |
| Trading Currency | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.26 | |