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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 12.5% - 11.5% | 12.0% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 7.1x - 7.9x | 7.5x |
Fair Value | €8.34 - €11.21 | €9.73 |
Upside | -29.9% - -5.8% | -18.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(CAD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 625 | 379 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 |
% Growth | 61.4% | -39.3% | -1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 138 | 72 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
% of Revenue | 22.1% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 72 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
EBIT | 91 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (12) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
NOPAT | 118 | 79 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NWC Investment | (416) | 430 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 514 | 73 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
% Growth | -86% | -15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |