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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 10.8x - 12.0x | 11.4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x - 8.2x | 7.8x |
Fair Value | €11.85 - €13.52 | €12.68 |
Upside | 14.3% - 30.5% | 22.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Oriola Oyj | ORIOLA | HLSE:ORIOLA |
Pihlajalinna Oyj | PIHLIS | HLSE:PIHLIS |
M1 Kliniken AG | M12 | DB:M12 |
Fresenius Medical Care AG | FME | DB:FME |
LNA Santé SA | LNA | ENXTPA:LNA |
Terveystalo Oyj | 4TS | DB:4TS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
ORIOLA | PIHLIS | M12 | FME | LNA | 4TS | ||
HLSE:ORIOLA | HLSE:PIHLIS | DB:M12 | DB:FME | ENXTPA:LNA | DB:4TS | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -12.7% | 19.9% | 24.7% | -5.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | |
3Y CAGR | -2.0% | 19.7% | 23.9% | -5.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -48.4% | 68.4% | 62.3% | -0.9% | 15.7% | 20.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 1.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 11.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 1.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 1.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 12.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 14.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.09x | 0.89x | 0.86x | 1.22x | 1.31x | 1.39x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 8.7x | 10.6x | 10.0x | 10.9x | 9.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 21.9x | 12.0x | 11.2x | 15.2x | 15.5x | 13.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 10.0x | 10.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.9x | 13.2x | 16.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 11.4x | 12.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 187 | 187 | 187 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,021 | 2,128 | 2,234 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (520) | (520) | (520) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,502 | 1,608 | 1,714 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 126.7 | 126.7 | 126.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 11.86 | 12.70 | 13.54 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.86 | 12.70 | 13.54 | 10.36 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 14.4% | 22.6% | 30.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | ORIOLA | PIHLIS | M12 | FME | LNA | 4TS | |
Enterprise Value | (51) | 626 | 287 | 23,733 | 1,059 | 1,832 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 122 | 36 | 22 | 1,071 | 75 | 52 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 206 | 0 | 4 | 667 | 15 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (74) | (325) | (21) | (10,841) | (876) | (571) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 1 | (28) | (1,132) | (10) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 203 | 339 | 263 | 13,497 | 263 | 1,312 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 181.4 | 22.5 | 18.6 | 293.4 | 10.2 | 126.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 1.12 | 15.05 | 14.18 | 46.00 | 25.70 | 10.36 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.12 | 15.05 | 14.18 | 46.00 | 25.70 | 10.36 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |