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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.8x - 4.2x | 4.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.9x - 4.3x | 4.1x |
| Fair Value | €34.19 - €40.10 | €37.15 |
| Upside | 3.8% - 21.7% | 12.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | NYSE:COP |
| Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | MGY | NYSE:MGY |
| Chevron Corporation | CVX | NYSE:CVX |
| Chord Energy Corporation | CHRD | NasdaqGS:CHRD |
| EQT Corporation | EQT | NYSE:EQT |
| Ovintiv Inc. | 47Q | DB:47Q |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| COP | MGY | CVX | CHRD | EQT | 47Q | ||
| NYSE:COP | NYSE:MGY | NYSE:CVX | NasdaqGS:CHRD | NYSE:EQT | DB:47Q | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 30.4% | 1.7% | 9.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 165.2% | 52.9% | 16.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.5% | -0.1% | -10.9% | 45.0% | 67.3% | -8.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 40.2% | 78.6% | 20.6% | 34.3% | 41.0% | 37.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 42.8% | 71.6% | 21.7% | 54.1% | 85.2% | 44.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 43.1% | 70.9% | 20.5% | 46.8% | 49.7% | 48.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 42.3% | 69.9% | 19.3% | 54.2% | 63.7% | 49.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.10x | 3.39x | 1.51x | 1.34x | 5.61x | 1.84x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 4.9x | 7.8x | 2.5x | 8.8x | 3.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 9.1x | 14.7x | 5.3x | 19.2x | 7.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.5x | 5.0x | 8.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 4.3x | 9.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.0x | 4.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4,432 | 4,432 | 4,432 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 16,758 | 17,640 | 18,522 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,576) | (6,576) | (6,576) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,182 | 11,064 | 11,946 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 257.0 | 257.0 | 257.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 39.61 | 43.05 | 46.48 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 33.99 | 36.93 | 39.88 | 32.94 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 3.2% | 12.1% | 21.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | COP | MGY | CVX | CHRD | EQT | 47Q | |
| Enterprise Value | 126,340 | 4,508 | 289,129 | 6,583 | 39,850 | 16,444 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,340 | 252 | 4,066 | 40 | 555 | 20 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 10,361 | 0 | 48,033 | 132 | 3,623 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,529) | (412) | (29,467) | (956) | (8,315) | (6,596) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (57) | (841) | 0 | (3,675) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 118,512 | 4,291 | 310,920 | 5,799 | 32,039 | 9,868 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,248.9 | 185.3 | 2,029.2 | 57.3 | 624.1 | 257.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 94.89 | 23.16 | 153.22 | 101.28 | 51.34 | 38.39 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 94.89 | 23.16 | 153.22 | 101.28 | 51.34 | 32.94 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |