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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8.5x - 9.4x | 8.9x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
Fair Value | €38.49 - €44.86 | €41.67 |
Upside | 14.9% - 33.9% | 24.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
ConocoPhillips | COP | NYSE:COP |
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | MGY | NYSE:MGY |
Chevron Corporation | CVX | NYSE:CVX |
Chord Energy Corporation | CHRD | NasdaqGS:CHRD |
EQT Corporation | EQT | NYSE:EQT |
Ovintiv Inc. | 47Q | DB:47Q |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
COP | MGY | CVX | CHRD | EQT | 47Q | ||
NYSE:COP | NYSE:MGY | NYSE:CVX | NasdaqGS:CHRD | NYSE:EQT | DB:47Q | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 14.6% | 32.0% | 17.3% | NM- | -13.5% | 23.1% | |
3Y CAGR | 4.0% | -5.1% | 13.1% | NM- | NM- | 10.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -10.3% | -8.9% | -21.6% | 10.8% | 155.3% | -17.7% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 23.2% | 33.5% | 10.4% | -79.3% | 7.8% | 18.8% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 28.4% | 43.6% | 13.8% | 37.6% | 50.4% | 26.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 26.0% | 38.9% | 11.9% | 24.3% | 6.8% | 23.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 24.4% | 37.4% | 10.3% | 25.3% | 29.2% | 24.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.14x | 3.48x | 1.55x | 1.34x | 5.67x | 1.87x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 5.0x | 8.0x | 2.5x | 8.9x | 3.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 8.8x | 9.3x | 15.1x | 5.3x | 19.5x | 7.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.3x | 9.3x | 19.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 6.7x | 98.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | 8.9x | 9.4x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 2,163 | 2,163 | 2,163 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,351 | 19,316 | 20,282 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,576) | (6,576) | (6,576) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 11,775 | 12,740 | 13,706 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 257.0 | 257.0 | 257.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 45.81 | 49.57 | 53.32 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 39.33 | 42.56 | 45.78 | 33.50 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 17.4% | 27.0% | 36.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | COP | MGY | CVX | CHRD | EQT | 47Q | |
Enterprise Value | 127,577 | 4,649 | 294,507 | 6,586 | 39,937 | 16,605 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,340 | 252 | 4,066 | 40 | 555 | 20 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 10,361 | 0 | 48,033 | 132 | 3,623 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (23,529) | (412) | (29,467) | (956) | (8,315) | (6,596) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (57) | (841) | 0 | (3,675) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 119,749 | 4,432 | 316,298 | 5,802 | 32,126 | 10,029 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,248.9 | 185.3 | 2,029.2 | 57.3 | 624.1 | 257.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 95.88 | 23.92 | 155.87 | 101.33 | 51.48 | 39.02 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 95.88 | 23.92 | 155.87 | 101.33 | 51.48 | 33.50 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 |