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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 9.6x | 8.6x |
Fair Value | €5.14 - €6.06 | €5.59 |
Upside | -18.9% - -4.3% | -11.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 365,906 | 490,055 | 607,214 | 716,677 | 819,230 | 910,891 |
% Growth | 35.0% | 33.9% | 23.9% | 18.0% | 14.3% | 11.2% |
EBITDA | 27,410 | 50,247 | 65,067 | 84,212 | 105,610 | 113,805 |
% of Revenue | 7.5% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 12.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 50,247 | 65,067 | 84,212 | 105,610 | 113,805 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (5,759) | (6,985) | (11,894) | (12,975) | (16,473) | |
EBIT | 44,487 | 58,081 | 72,318 | 92,635 | 97,332 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (8,897) | (11,616) | (14,464) | (18,527) | (19,466) | |
NOPAT | 18,417 | 35,590 | 46,465 | 57,855 | 74,108 | 77,866 |
Capital Expenditures | (7,297) | (10,303) | (10,000) | (10,117) | (18,254) | (19,974) |
NWC Investment | 6,366 | 8,325 | 7,857 | 7,341 | 6,877 | 6,147 |
(+) D&A | 4,389 | 5,759 | 6,985 | 11,894 | 12,975 | 16,473 |
Free Cash Flow | 21,875 | 39,372 | 51,307 | 66,972 | 75,707 | 80,512 |
% Growth | 80% | 30% | 31% | 13% | 6% |