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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.3% - 5.3% | 4.8% |
Fair Value | €11.65 - €22.78 | €16.18 |
Upside | -39.0% - 19.3% | -15.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 | |
Revenue | 80,391 | 83,330 | 83,605 | 85,569 | 86,968 | 88,852 | 90,629 | 92,441 | 94,290 | 96,176 | 98,099 | |
% Growth | 1.5% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
EBITDA | 3,747 | 3,873 | 3,947 | 4,047 | 3,763 | 3,800 | 3,876 | 3,954 | 4,033 | 4,113 | 4,196 | |
% of Revenue | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 3,873 | 3,947 | 4,047 | 3,763 | 3,800 | 3,876 | 3,954 | 4,033 | 4,113 | 4,196 | 4,196 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,870) | (1,881) | (1,858) | (1,941) | (1,983) | (2,023) | (2,063) | (2,104) | (2,146) | (2,189) | (1,892) | |
EBIT | 2,003 | 2,066 | 2,189 | 1,822 | 1,817 | 1,853 | 1,891 | 1,928 | 1,967 | 2,006 | 2,303 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (421) | (434) | (460) | (383) | (382) | (389) | (397) | (405) | (413) | (421) | (484) | |
NOPAT | 1,588 | 1,582 | 1,632 | 1,729 | 1,439 | 1,436 | 1,464 | 1,494 | 1,523 | 1,554 | 1,585 | 1,819 |
Capital Expenditures | (1,931) | (1,850) | (1,878) | (2,004) | (1,976) | (2,000) | (1,993) | (1,990) | (1,994) | (1,992) | (1,992) | (1,992) |
NWC Investment | 3 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
(+) D&A | 1,737 | 1,870 | 1,881 | 1,858 | 1,941 | 1,983 | 2,023 | 2,063 | 2,104 | 2,146 | 2,189 | 1,892 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,397 | 1,611 | 1,636 | 1,589 | 1,409 | 1,424 | 1,499 | 1,572 | 1,639 | 1,713 | 1,788 | 1,733 |
% Growth | 15% | 2% | -3% | -11% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | -3% |