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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 18.2x - 20.1x | 19.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 13.1x - 14.5x | 13.8x |
| Fair Value | €3.77 - €4.09 | €3.93 |
| Upside | -18.9% - -12.0% | -15.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. | 600887 | SHSE:600887 |
| Danone S.A. | GPDN.F | OTCPK:GPDN.F |
| Sanford Limited | SAN | NZSE:SAN |
| PGG Wrightson Limited | PGW | NZSE:PGW |
| Seeka Limited | SEK | NZSE:SEK |
| The a2 Milk Company Limited | 14L | DB:14L |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600887 | GPDN.F | SAN | PGW | SEK | 14L | ||
| SHSE:600887 | OTCPK:GPDN.F | NZSE:SAN | NZSE:PGW | NZSE:SEK | DB:14L | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 13.2% | -4.5% | -0.6% | -2.2% | 20.8% | -11.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 16.3% | -0.8% | 25.5% | -15.7% | 15.5% | 20.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.2% | -14.8% | 43.2% | -7.7% | 450.2% | 6.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 11.1% | 17.2% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 10.9% | 16.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.8% | 17.2% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 13.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.2% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 15.6% | 13.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.5% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 15.6% | 13.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.58x | 1.94x | 1.20x | 0.36x | 0.82x | 3.05x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.6x | 13.1x | 8.7x | 13.3x | 5.3x | 22.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.5x | 16.6x | 13.1x | 17.0x | 7.2x | 26.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 12.6x | 13.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.1x | 19.5x | 27.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.2x | 19.2x | 20.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 235 | 235 | 235 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,273 | 4,498 | 4,723 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,022 | 1,022 | 1,022 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,295 | 5,520 | 5,745 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 724.0 | 724.0 | 724.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 7.31 | 7.62 | 7.93 | ||||
| FX Rate: NZD/EUR | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.84 | 4.00 | 4.16 | 4.65 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.6% | -14.1% | -10.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600887 | GPDN.F | SAN | PGW | SEK | 14L | |
| Enterprise Value | 184,864 | 52,870 | 692 | 334 | 341 | 5,401 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 50,353 | 6,160 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1,042 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 8,462 | 1,322 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 55 | |
| (-) Debt | (61,827) | (14,802) | (234) | (202) | (203) | (95) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,731) | (59) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 19 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 178,120 | 45,491 | 473 | 135 | 150 | 6,423 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,343.3 | 644.2 | 93.5 | 75.5 | 41.8 | 724.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 28.08 | 70.62 | 5.06 | 1.79 | 3.60 | 8.87 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.91 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 28.08 | 76.29 | 5.06 | 1.79 | 3.60 | 4.65 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | USD | NZD | NZD | NZD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.91 | |