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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.5x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Fair Value | €1.45 - €2.55 | €2 |
| Upside | -35.6% - 13.2% | -11.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| PostNL N.V. | PNL | ENXTAM:PNL |
| Österreichische Post AG | POST | WBAG:POST |
| Foodlink A.E. | FOODL | ATSE:FOODL |
| Logwin AG | TGHN | DB:TGHN |
| ID Logistics Group SA | IDL | ENXTPA:IDL |
| bpost NV/SA | 13B | DB:13B |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| PNL | POST | FOODL | TGHN | IDL | 13B | |||
| ENXTAM:PNL | WBAG:POST | ATSE:FOODL | DB:TGHN | ENXTPA:IDL | DB:13B | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 16.3% | 2.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -2.1% | 7.5% | 9.5% | -8.0% | 20.3% | 0.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.4% | 5.0% | 14.9% | 21.4% | 19.1% | 9.3% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -4.5% | 6.3% | 0.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.5% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.30x | 0.86x | 0.64x | 0.30x | 1.24x | 0.49x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 36.8x | 16.6x | 22.0x | 5.3x | 28.7x | 14.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.15x | 0.63x | 0.32x | 0.49x | 0.89x | 0.10x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.30x | 0.64x | 1.24x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.48x | 0.57x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.47x | 0.49x | 0.51x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 4,554 | 4,554 | 4,554 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,118 | 2,229 | 2,341 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,799) | (1,799) | (1,799) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 319 | 431 | 542 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 200.0 | 200.0 | 200.0 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.60 | 2.15 | 2.71 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.60 | 2.15 | 2.71 | 2.26 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -29.2% | -4.5% | 20.2% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | PNL | POST | FOODL | TGHN | IDL | 13B | |
| Enterprise Value | 998 | 2,677 | 60 | 474 | 4,018 | 2,250 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 457 | 76 | 6 | 334 | 317 | 1,247 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 31 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,001) | (780) | (36) | (53) | (1,451) | (3,044) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3) | (44) | 0 | (1) | (2) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 482 | 1,966 | 30 | 754 | 2,886 | 451 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 508.7 | 67.6 | 32.8 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 200.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.95 | 29.10 | 0.92 | 262.00 | 441.50 | 2.26 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.95 | 29.10 | 0.92 | 262.00 | 441.50 | 2.26 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |