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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.5x - 3.9x | 3.7x |
| Fair Value | €1.20 - €2.26 | €1.73 |
| Upside | -44.7% - 4.6% | -20.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PostNL N.V. | PNL | ENXTAM:PNL |
| Österreichische Post AG | POST | WBAG:POST |
| Foodlink A.E. | FOODL | ATSE:FOODL |
| Logwin AG | TGHN | DB:TGHN |
| MaltaPost p.l.c. | MTP | MTSE:MTP |
| bpost NV/SA | 13B | DB:13B |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| PNL | POST | FOODL | TGHN | MTP | 13B | ||
| ENXTAM:PNL | WBAG:POST | ATSE:FOODL | DB:TGHN | MTSE:MTP | DB:13B | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -17.2% | 3.1% | 34.4% | 10.6% | 10.6% | -0.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -36.8% | 4.4% | 53.7% | -6.8% | 23.9% | -8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -13.8% | 1.4% | 15.8% | -11.4% | 43.5% | 28.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -2.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.2% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.7% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 15.2% | 7.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.9% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 7.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.28x | 0.86x | 0.50x | 0.26x | 0.69x | 0.50x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.6x | 9.3x | 11.5x | 4.3x | 4.0x | 6.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 24.3x | 15.9x | 17.2x | 4.6x | 5.4x | 14.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 9.3x | 11.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.2x | 5.0x | 7.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.4x | 6.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 334 | 334 | 334 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,032 | 2,139 | 2,246 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,781) | (1,781) | (1,781) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 251 | 358 | 465 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 200.0 | 200.0 | 200.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.26 | 1.79 | 2.33 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.26 | 1.79 | 2.33 | 2.16 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.8% | -17.1% | 7.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | PNL | POST | FOODL | TGHN | MTP | 13B | |
| Enterprise Value | 899 | 2,646 | 48 | 372 | 28 | 2,213 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 420 | 119 | 6 | 373 | 6 | 781 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (900) | (745) | (36) | (60) | (3) | (2,562) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3) | 0 | 0 | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 446 | 2,020 | 18 | 685 | 37 | 432 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 508.7 | 67.6 | 32.8 | 2.9 | 80.3 | 200.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.88 | 29.90 | 0.54 | 238.00 | 0.46 | 2.16 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.88 | 29.90 | 0.54 | 238.00 | 0.46 | 2.16 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |