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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 5.8x - 6.4x | 6.1x |
Fair Value | kr391.53 - kr455.34 | kr422.38 |
Upside | -12.1% - 2.2% | -5.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 3,834 | 4,204 | 4,539 | 4,850 | 5,191 | 5,536 | 5,886 | 6,092 | 6,214 | 6,338 | 6,465 |
% Growth | 59.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,082 | 1,591 | 1,748 | 1,914 | 2,099 | 2,198 | 2,354 | 2,436 | 2,485 | 2,535 | 2,586 |
% of Revenue | 28.2% | 37.8% | 38.5% | 39.5% | 40.4% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 1,591 | 1,748 | 1,914 | 2,099 | 2,198 | 2,354 | 2,436 | 2,485 | 2,535 | 2,586 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (535) | (532) | (516) | (495) | (420) | (446) | (462) | (471) | (481) | (490) | |
EBIT | 1,056 | 1,216 | 1,398 | 1,604 | 1,778 | 1,908 | 1,974 | 2,014 | 2,054 | 2,095 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (232) | (267) | (307) | (353) | (391) | (420) | (434) | (443) | (452) | (461) | |
NOPAT | 657 | 823 | 948 | 1,090 | 1,251 | 1,387 | 1,488 | 1,540 | 1,571 | 1,602 | 1,634 |
Capital Expenditures | (338) | (484) | (481) | (499) | (565) | (541) | (535) | (547) | (541) | (541) | (543) |
NWC Investment | (238) | (62) | (56) | (52) | (57) | (57) | (58) | (34) | (20) | (21) | (21) |
(+) D&A | 239 | 535 | 532 | 516 | 495 | 420 | 446 | 462 | 471 | 481 | 490 |
Free Cash Flow | 321 | 813 | 944 | 1,055 | 1,125 | 1,209 | 1,341 | 1,421 | 1,481 | 1,522 | 1,561 |
% Growth | 16% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% |