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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 5.1x - 5.7x | 5.4x |
Fair Value | kr156.64 - kr182.19 | kr168.99 |
Upside | -18.6% - -5.4% | -12.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(DKK in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 5,537 | 6,204 | 6,969 | 7,771 | 8,489 | 9,309 | 9,635 | 9,828 | 10,024 | 10,225 | 10,429 |
% Growth | 14.8% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,280 | 1,849 | 2,089 | 2,308 | 2,445 | 2,686 | 2,780 | 2,836 | 2,892 | 2,950 | 3,009 |
% of Revenue | 23.1% | 29.8% | 30.0% | 29.7% | 28.8% | 28.9% | 28.9% | 28.9% | 28.9% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 1,849 | 2,089 | 2,308 | 2,445 | 2,686 | 2,780 | 2,836 | 2,892 | 2,950 | 3,009 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (300) | (338) | (333) | (298) | (317) | (328) | (335) | (341) | (348) | (355) | |
EBIT | 1,548 | 1,751 | 1,975 | 2,147 | 2,369 | 2,452 | 2,501 | 2,551 | 2,602 | 2,654 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (372) | (420) | (474) | (515) | (569) | (588) | (600) | (612) | (624) | (637) | |
NOPAT | 834 | 1,177 | 1,331 | 1,501 | 1,632 | 1,800 | 1,863 | 1,901 | 1,939 | 1,978 | 2,017 |
Capital Expenditures | (260) | (403) | (462) | (486) | (706) | (372) | (385) | (393) | (383) | (387) | (388) |
NWC Investment | (205) | (191) | (220) | (230) | (206) | (235) | (93) | (55) | (56) | (58) | (59) |
(+) D&A | 183 | 300 | 338 | 333 | 298 | 317 | 328 | 335 | 341 | 348 | 355 |
Free Cash Flow | 552 | 883 | 987 | 1,119 | 1,018 | 1,510 | 1,713 | 1,787 | 1,840 | 1,881 | 1,926 |
% Growth | 12% | 13% | -9% | 48% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |