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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 8.1x | 7.1x |
Fair Value | CHF 11.85 - CHF 15.97 | CHF 13.87 |
Upside | 33.9% - 80.5% | 56.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(CHF in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 4,152 | 4,120 | 4,267 | 4,453 | 4,775 | 4,885 |
% Growth | -5.1% | -0.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
EBITDA | 562 | 705 | 769 | 819 | 846 | 860 |
% of Revenue | 13.5% | 17.1% | 18.0% | 18.4% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(CHF in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 705 | 769 | 819 | 846 | 860 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (255) | (245) | (241) | (295) | (277) | |
EBIT | 449 | 524 | 578 | 551 | 583 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (108) | (126) | (139) | (132) | (140) | |
NOPAT | 274 | 342 | 398 | 439 | 419 | 443 |
Capital Expenditures | (206) | (217) | (224) | (229) | (260) | (299) |
NWC Investment | 57 | 8 | (37) | (47) | (81) | (28) |
(+) D&A | 201 | 255 | 245 | 241 | 295 | 277 |
Free Cash Flow | 326 | 388 | 382 | 405 | 373 | 394 |
% Growth | 19% | -1% | 6% | -8% | 6% |