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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 13.8% - 12.8% | 13.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 2.0x - 4.0x | 3.0x |
Fair Value | EGP 23.75 - EGP 48.03 | EGP 35.66 |
Upside | 32.6% - 168.2% | 99.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EGP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 260 | 454 | 704 | 951 | 1,141 | 1,284 |
% Growth | 113.7% | 75.0% | 55.0% | 35.0% | 20.0% | 12.5% |
EBITDA | 182 | 308 | 529 | 761 | 913 | 1,027 |
% of Revenue | 70.1% | 67.7% | 75.2% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EGP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 308 | 529 | 761 | 913 | 1,027 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (33) | (51) | (69) | (82) | (93) | |
EBIT | 275 | 479 | 692 | 830 | 934 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (33) | (57) | (83) | (100) | (112) | |
NOPAT | 151 | 242 | 421 | 609 | 731 | 822 |
Capital Expenditures | (44) | (77) | (120) | (162) | (171) | (193) |
NWC Investment | 10 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 11 |
(+) D&A | 10 | 33 | 51 | 69 | 82 | 93 |
Free Cash Flow | 127 | 212 | 370 | 534 | 656 | 733 |
% Growth | 66% | 75% | 44% | 23% | 12% |