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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.4x - 11.4x | 10.4x |
Fair Value | EGP 17.23 - EGP 19.07 | EGP 18.12 |
Upside | 63.8% - 81.2% | 72.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EGP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 448 | 504 | 541 | 560 | 572 | 583 | 595 | 607 | 619 | 631 | 644 |
% Growth | 21.1% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 22 | 34 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
% of Revenue | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EGP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 34 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
EBIT | 29 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (8) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (13) | |
NOPAT | 14 | 21 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 |
Capital Expenditures | (17) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) |
NWC Investment | (2) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
(+) D&A | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Free Cash Flow | (2) | 5 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
% Growth | NM | 93% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% |