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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 0.6x - 2.6x | 1.6x |
Fair Value | COP 803.91 - COP 1,033 | COP 916.06 |
Upside | 70.3% - 118.8% | 94.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(COP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 883,010 | 951,000 | 984,285 | 1,003,971 | 1,024,050 | 1,044,531 |
% Growth | -27.8% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | -66,617 | 157,000 | 162,495 | 165,745 | 169,060 | 172,441 |
% of Revenue | -7.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(COP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 157,000 | 162,495 | 165,745 | 169,060 | 172,441 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (62,000) | (64,170) | (65,453) | (66,762) | (68,098) | |
EBIT | 95,000 | 98,325 | 100,292 | 102,297 | 104,343 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (32,300) | (33,431) | (34,099) | (34,781) | (35,477) | |
NOPAT | (58,690) | 62,700 | 64,895 | 66,192 | 67,516 | 68,867 |
Capital Expenditures | (21,193) | (22,431) | (23,216) | (23,680) | (24,154) | (24,637) |
NWC Investment | 168,633 | (33,788) | (16,541) | (9,783) | (9,979) | (10,178) |
(+) D&A | 22,307 | 62,000 | 64,170 | 65,453 | 66,762 | 68,098 |
Free Cash Flow | 111,058 | 68,481 | 89,307 | 98,183 | 100,146 | 102,149 |
% Growth | -38% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 2% |