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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.3x | 0.2x |
Fair Value | COP 198.55 - COP 213.42 | COP 205.99 |
Upside | 16.1% - 24.8% | 20.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Constructora Conconcreto S.A. | CONCONCRET | BVC:CONCONCRET |
Construcciones El Condor S.A. | ELCONDOR | BVC:ELCONDOR |
Amos Luzon Development and Energy Group Ltd | LUZN | TASE:LUZN |
El-Saeed Company for Contracting and Real Estate Investment "SCCD" (S.A.E.) | UEGC | CASE:UEGC |
Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.B. | GMXD.F | OTCPK:GMXD.F |
Construcciones Civiles S.A. | CONCIVILES | BVC:CONCIVILES |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
CONCONCRET | ELCONDOR | LUZN | UEGC | GMXD.F | CONCIVILES | |||
BVC:CONCONCRET | BVC:ELCONDOR | TASE:LUZN | CASE:UEGC | OTCPK:GMXD.F | BVC:CONCIVILES | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | -1.4% | 6.3% | -1.8% | 20.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | ||
3Y CAGR | 2.8% | 27.4% | -8.6% | 11.4% | 7.5% | -4.1% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -30.5% | 18.8% | -4.9% | -31.5% | 1.5% | -30.1% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -1.6% | 2.3% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 22.7% | 7.6% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.1% | -18.1% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 23.0% | 8.9% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | -10.1% | -4.5% | 7.2% | 23.0% | 25.5% | 10.3% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -10.5% | -8.2% | 7.7% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 12.2% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.05x | 1.00x | 2.35x | 1.26x | 0.73x | 0.22x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | -0.4x | -12.3x | 30.6x | 5.1x | 2.9x | 1.8x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.70x | 0.23x | 1.43x | 0.41x | 0.31x | 0.33x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.05x | 1.00x | 2.35x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 0.27x | 0.34x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.29x | 0.30x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 49,381 | 49,381 | 49,381 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 13,406 | 14,112 | 14,817 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 5,504 | 5,504 | 5,504 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 18,910 | 19,616 | 20,321 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 196.98 | 204.33 | 211.68 | |||||
FX Rate: COP/COP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 196.98 | 204.33 | 211.68 | 171.00 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 15.2% | 19.5% | 23.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CONCONCRET | ELCONDOR | LUZN | UEGC | GMXD.F | CONCIVILES | |
Enterprise Value | 37,035 | 1,173,642 | 2,147 | 2,300 | 3,775 | 10,912 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 191,661 | 30,723 | 429 | 48 | 1,795 | 7,908 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 581,067 | 18,725 | 202 | 139 | 324 | 1,267 | |
(-) Debt | (257,216) | (953,139) | (1,093) | (1,733) | (1,505) | (3,671) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,299) | 0 | (380) | (0) | (2,714) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 551,248 | 269,952 | 1,305 | 754 | 1,675 | 16,416 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,134.3 | 574.4 | 399.5 | 725.2 | 182.5 | 96.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 486.00 | 470.00 | 3.27 | 1.04 | 9.18 | 171.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 18.73 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 486.00 | 470.00 | 3.27 | 1.04 | 0.49 | 171.00 | |
Trading Currency | COP | COP | ILS | EGP | USD | COP | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 18.73 | 1.00 |