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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.8% - 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.7% | 8.2% |
| Fair Value | COP 18,346 - COP 22,205 | COP 20,076 |
| Upside | 50.4% - 82.0% | 64.6% |
| Project Adjusted Dividends | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | ||||||||
| (COP in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| Net Income to Common | 99,323 | 89,295 | 92,421 | 94,269 | 96,155 | 98,078 | 98,078 | |
| % Growth | 73.0% | -10.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | ||
| Payout Ratio | 64.6% | 70.0% | 75.0% | 80.0% | 85.0% | 90.0% | 92.5% | |
| Projected Dividends | 64,194 | 62,507 | 69,316 | 75,415 | 81,731 | 88,270 | 90,722 | |
| % Growth | -2.6% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | |||
| Historical Performance | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | YTD | YTD | ||||||
| (COP in millions) | Dec-20 | Dec-21 | Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | |
| Cash Dividends Paid | 24,383 | 66,365 | 36,414 | 50,469 | 64,194 | 0 | 0 | |
| % Growth | 172% | -45% | 39% | 27% | NM | |||
| Net Income to Common | 65,172 | 39,795 | 24,252 | 57,412 | 99,323 | 23,014 | 23,442 | |
| % Growth | -39% | -39% | 137% | 73% | 2% | |||
| Payout Ratio | 37% | 167% | 150% | 88% | 65% | 0% | 0% | |
| Retention Ratio | 63% | -67% | -50% | 12% | 35% | 100% | 100% | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 60,376 | 60,833 | 63,144 | 114,155 | 169,428 | 45,563 | 44,777 | |
| % Growth | 1% | 4% | 81% | 48% | -2% | |||
| Total Debt | 50,543 | 33,876 | 103,439 | 26,095 | 183,068 | 31,100 | 49,370 | |
| Shareholder's Equity | 623,111 | 591,610 | 578,361 | 584,106 | 627,155 | 550,679 | 551,816 | |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | ||
| Debt / Equity | 8% | 6% | 18% | 4% | 29% | 6% | 9% | |
| 3-Yr Avg. Dividend Growth | 6.9% | |||||||
| 5-Yr Median Payout Ratio | 87.9% | |||||||