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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.7x - 3.0x | 2.9x |
| Fair Value | €9.99 - €12.27 | €11.11 |
| Upside | 4.7% - 28.5% | 16.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (BRL in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 47,403 | 52,695 | 58,617 | 60,302 | 60,933 | 60,933 |
| % Growth | 19.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 23,460 | 26,499 | 30,242 | 31,956 | 30,064 | 30,064 |
| % of Revenue | 49.5% | 50.3% | 51.6% | 53.0% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (BRL in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 26,499 | 30,242 | 31,956 | 30,064 | 30,064 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (15,115) | (9,832) | (10,825) | (8,928) | (7,369) | |
| EBIT | 11,384 | 20,410 | 21,131 | 21,136 | 22,695 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (2,960) | (5,307) | (5,494) | (5,495) | (5,901) | |
| NOPAT | 10,793 | 8,424 | 15,103 | 15,637 | 15,641 | 16,794 |
| Capital Expenditures | (16,371) | (12,424) | (11,000) | (11,212) | (10,018) | (10,014) |
| NWC Investment | (1,743) | (1,206) | (1,350) | (384) | (144) | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 8,875 | 15,115 | 9,832 | 10,825 | 8,928 | 7,369 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,554 | 9,909 | 12,585 | 14,866 | 14,407 | 14,149 |
| % Growth | 538% | 27% | 18% | -3% | -2% | |