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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.6x - 1.8x | 1.7x |
| Fair Value | €11.10 - €12.61 | €11.84 |
| Upside | 29.1% - 46.7% | 37.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 40,866 | 80,606 | 106,262 | 124,558 | 132,571 | 146,787 |
| % Growth | 33.2% | 97.2% | 31.8% | 17.2% | 6.4% | 10.7% |
| EBITDA | -4,967 | -970 | 2,610 | 5,655 | 8,142 | 10,591 |
| % of Revenue | -12.2% | -1.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | (970) | 2,610 | 5,655 | 8,142 | 10,591 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (2,249) | (2,178) | (2,720) | (1,536) | (915) | |
| EBIT | (3,219) | 433 | 2,935 | 6,606 | 9,676 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | (61) | (411) | (925) | (1,355) | |
| NOPAT | (5,927) | (3,219) | 372 | 2,524 | 5,681 | 8,321 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (2,600) | (2,347) | (2,247) | (5,129) | (5,870) |
| NWC Investment | 1,800 | 7,018 | 4,531 | 3,231 | 1,415 | 2,511 |
| (+) D&A | 1,925 | 2,249 | 2,178 | 2,720 | 1,536 | 915 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 3,448 | 4,734 | 6,229 | 3,503 | 5,878 |
| % Growth | NM | 37% | 32% | -44% | 68% | |