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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 11.7x - 13.7x | 12.7x |
| Fair Value | €0.92 - €1.28 | €1.10 |
| Upside | -65.1% - -51.6% | -58.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 18,906 | 18,083 | 21,185 | 25,289 | 36,280 | 20,870 |
| % Growth | -42.7% | -4.4% | 17.2% | 19.4% | 43.5% | -42.5% |
| EBITDA | 1,690 | 1,702 | 3,751 | 5,322 | 5,365 | 5,339 |
| % of Revenue | 8.9% | 9.4% | 17.7% | 21.0% | 14.8% | 25.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 1,702 | 3,751 | 5,322 | 5,365 | 5,339 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,212 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,543) | (2,242) | (2,321) | (3,330) | (1,623) | |
| EBIT | 158 | 1,510 | 3,001 | 7,248 | 3,716 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (19) | (181) | (360) | (870) | (446) | |
| NOPAT | 387 | 139 | 1,328 | 2,641 | 6,378 | 3,270 |
| Capital Expenditures | (9,221) | (8,254) | (5,937) | (5,659) | (2,282) | (1,670) |
| NWC Investment | 1,389 | 81 | (306) | (405) | (1,086) | 1,522 |
| (+) D&A | 1,250 | 1,543 | 2,242 | 2,321 | 3,330 | 1,623 |
| Free Cash Flow | (6,194) | (6,490) | (2,674) | (1,103) | 6,340 | 4,745 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | -25% | |