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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.7x - 3.0x | 2.9x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.5x - 2.8x | 2.7x |
| Fair Value | R$70.91 - R$80.68 | R$75.79 |
| Upside | -1.3% - 12.3% | 5.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation | NEM | NYSE:NEM |
| Southern Copper Corporation | SCCO | NYSE:SCCO |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc | AU | NYSE:AU |
| Alcoa Corporation | AA | NYSE:AA |
| South32 Limited | SHTL.F | OTCPK:SHTL.F |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | FCXO34 | BOVESPA:FCXO34 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| NEM | SCCO | AU | AA | SHTL.F | FCXO34 | |||
| NYSE:NEM | NYSE:SCCO | NYSE:AU | NYSE:AA | OTCPK:SHTL.F | BOVESPA:FCXO34 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 13.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | -5.8% | 12.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 15.2% | 1.5% | 12.9% | -0.7% | 0.1% | 3.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 58.2% | 15.5% | 26.4% | 12.7% | 36.1% | 11.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 18.3% | 45.0% | 21.2% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 25.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.0% | 42.4% | 13.0% | -0.7% | 4.9% | 27.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 31.6% | 48.6% | 27.1% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 27.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 31.6% | 48.6% | 27.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 27.3% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.96x | 6.78x | 3.59x | 0.73x | 1.36x | 2.82x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 14.0x | 13.2x | 9.4x | 15.5x | 10.3x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.91x | 6.47x | 3.24x | 0.66x | 1.46x | 2.15x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.73x | 2.96x | 6.78x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.82x | 3.30x | 3.95x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.72x | 2.86x | 3.01x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 25,455 | 25,455 | 25,455 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 69,252 | 72,897 | 76,542 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,556) | (16,556) | (16,556) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 52,696 | 56,341 | 59,986 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,320.1 | 4,320.1 | 4,320.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 12.20 | 13.04 | 13.89 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/BRL | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 69.54 | 74.35 | 79.16 | 71.86 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -3.2% | 3.5% | 10.2% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NEM | SCCO | AU | AA | SHTL.F | FCXO34 | |
| Enterprise Value | 55,564 | 78,195 | 20,901 | 8,541 | 9,249 | 71,011 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,640 | 3,503 | 1,425 | 1,138 | 1,600 | 3,923 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,471 | 112 | 584 | 980 | 662 | 456 | |
| (-) Debt | (9,059) | (6,998) | (2,153) | (2,856) | (1,647) | (9,738) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (181) | (67) | (1,884) | 0 | (13) | (11,197) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 54,435 | 74,746 | 18,873 | 7,803 | 9,851 | 54,455 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,127.3 | 796.2 | 503.5 | 258.9 | 5,117.6 | 4,320.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 48.29 | 93.88 | 37.48 | 30.14 | 1.93 | 12.61 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 48.29 | 93.88 | 37.48 | 30.14 | 1.93 | 71.86 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | |