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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 7.9x | 7.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.5x - 7.2x | 6.9x |
| Fair Value | R$34.58 - R$40.89 | R$37.74 |
| Upside | -13.5% - 2.3% | -5.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Eneva S.A. | ENEV3 | BOVESPA:ENEV3 |
| Neoenergia S.A. | NEOE3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 |
| Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | CPLE3 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 |
| CPFL Energia S.A. | CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 |
| Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | CMIG3 | BOVESPA:CMIG3 |
| Engie Brasil Energia S.A. | EGIE3 | BOVESPA:EGIE3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ENEV3 | NEOE3 | CPLE3 | CPFE3 | CMIG3 | EGIE3 | ||
| BOVESPA:ENEV3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CMIG3 | BOVESPA:EGIE3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 21.0% | 17.6% | 4.7% | 15.8% | 19.0% | 5.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 19.2% | 7.8% | -5.4% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 0.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -15.8% | 19.7% | 19.1% | -0.6% | 21.3% | 10.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 38.8% | 24.8% | 23.1% | 26.8% | 20.3% | 54.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 39.8% | 25.2% | 21.8% | 32.9% | 21.1% | 59.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 29.7% | 26.4% | 22.8% | 30.4% | 23.7% | 58.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 29.7% | 26.8% | 23.6% | 30.4% | 22.9% | 58.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.04x | 1.42x | 1.86x | 1.68x | 1.01x | 4.53x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.6x | 5.3x | 7.9x | 5.5x | 4.4x | 7.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 20.7x | 6.8x | 10.5x | 6.7x | 5.1x | 9.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.4x | 5.5x | 13.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 7.6x | 8.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 7.6x | 7.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 6,816 | 6,816 | 6,816 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 48,889 | 51,462 | 54,035 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (20,705) | (20,705) | (20,705) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 28,184 | 30,757 | 33,330 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 815.9 | 815.9 | 815.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 34.54 | 37.70 | 40.85 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 34.54 | 37.70 | 40.85 | 39.99 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -13.6% | -5.7% | 2.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ENEV3 | NEOE3 | CPLE3 | CPFE3 | CMIG3 | EGIE3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 46,594 | 71,120 | 42,678 | 72,556 | 42,157 | 53,334 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,866 | 6,013 | 6,057 | 3,547 | 4,700 | 5,701 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 8 | 2,339 | 4,184 | 726 | 3,308 | 1,372 | |
| (-) Debt | (21,872) | (51,786) | (19,138) | (31,555) | (15,660) | (26,708) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,305) | (135) | 39 | (1,063) | (6) | (1,070) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 27,291 | 27,551 | 33,820 | 44,212 | 34,501 | 32,629 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,931.4 | 1,213.2 | 2,969.3 | 1,152.3 | 2,402.6 | 815.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 14.13 | 22.71 | 11.39 | 38.37 | 14.36 | 39.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 14.13 | 22.71 | 11.39 | 38.37 | 14.36 | 39.99 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |