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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11.3x - 12.5x | 11.9x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.0x - 4.5x | 4.3x |
Fair Value | R$3.41 - R$3.82 | R$3.62 |
Upside | 40.0% - 56.5% | 48.2% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
São Paulo Turismo S.A. | AHEB3 | BOVESPA:AHEB3 |
International Meal Company Alimentação S.A. | MEAL3 | BOVESPA:MEAL3 |
Zamp S.A. | ZAMP3 | BOVESPA:ZAMP3 |
Hotéis Othon S.A. | HOOT4 | BOVESPA:HOOT4 |
Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A. | SMFT3 | BOVESPA:SMFT3 |
CVC Brasil Operadora e Agência de Viagens S.A. | CVCB3 | BOVESPA:CVCB3 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
AHEB3 | MEAL3 | ZAMP3 | HOOT4 | SMFT3 | CVCB3 | ||
BOVESPA:AHEB3 | BOVESPA:MEAL3 | BOVESPA:ZAMP3 | BOVESPA:HOOT4 | BOVESPA:SMFT3 | BOVESPA:CVCB3 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | -1.4% | -4.9% | NM- | 27.7% | -14.9% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 15.2% | 68.0% | NM- | 226.5% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | -36.3% | 7.9% | -5.6% | 38.6% | 13.2% | 1310.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 7.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | -37.0% | 20.3% | -28.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 21.3% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 33.8% | 38.3% | -5.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 20.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 38.9% | 35.8% | 11.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 41.2% | 33.1% | 11.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.37x | 0.60x | 0.64x | 0.05x | 3.64x | 1.00x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.8x | 8.9x | 9.5x | 0.1x | 11.0x | 8.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 2.9x | 43.0x | 76.1x | 0.1x | 16.0x | 14.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.1x | 8.9x | 11.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -18.3x | 7.8x | 140.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.3x | 11.9x | 12.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 167 | 167 | 167 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,890 | 1,989 | 2,089 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (225) | (225) | (225) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,665 | 1,764 | 1,864 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 524.8 | 524.8 | 524.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 3.17 | 3.36 | 3.55 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.17 | 3.36 | 3.55 | 2.44 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 30.0% | 37.8% | 45.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AHEB3 | MEAL3 | ZAMP3 | HOOT4 | SMFT3 | CVCB3 | |
Enterprise Value | 254 | 1,339 | 3,008 | 7 | 21,878 | 1,505 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 56 | 194 | 375 | 33 | 2,951 | 404 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (4) | (1,229) | (2,020) | (1) | (11,297) | (629) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | (16) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 306 | 363 | 1,364 | 73 | 13,665 | 1,280 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 8.5 | 285.8 | 398.9 | 18.4 | 597.3 | 524.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 35.80 | 1.27 | 3.42 | 3.99 | 22.88 | 2.44 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 35.80 | 1.27 | 3.42 | 3.99 | 22.88 | 2.44 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |