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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.4x - 7.0x | 6.7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 5.5x | 5.3x |
Fair Value | R$8.52 - R$9.73 | R$9.12 |
Upside | -24.4% - -13.7% | -19.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás | ELET5 | BOVESPA:ELET5 |
CPFL Energia S.A. | CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 |
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | CMIG4 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 |
Neoenergia S.A. | NEOE3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 |
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | GEPA4 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 |
Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | CPLE3 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
ELET5 | CPFE3 | CMIG4 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | ||
BOVESPA:ELET5 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 9.4% | 15.8% | 19.0% | 17.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -12.6% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 22.7% | -5.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 19.9% | -1.9% | 21.3% | 19.7% | 13.9% | 19.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 47.4% | 27.4% | 20.3% | 24.8% | 63.9% | 23.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 40.0% | 32.9% | 21.1% | 25.2% | 58.3% | 21.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 41.3% | 30.4% | 23.7% | 26.4% | 68.3% | 22.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 39.7% | 30.3% | 22.9% | 26.6% | 69.3% | 23.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.55x | 1.71x | 1.07x | 1.50x | 2.90x | 1.90x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 5.6x | 4.7x | 5.6x | 4.2x | 8.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | 6.9x | 5.4x | 7.2x | 6.1x | 10.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.2x | 5.6x | 6.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 5.8x | 8.8x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 6.7x | 7.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 5,468 | 5,468 | 5,468 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 34,844 | 36,678 | 38,511 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,858) | (8,858) | (8,858) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 25,986 | 27,819 | 29,653 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,976.6 | 2,976.6 | 2,976.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 8.73 | 9.35 | 9.96 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.73 | 9.35 | 9.96 | 11.27 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -22.5% | -17.1% | -11.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | ELET5 | CPFE3 | CMIG4 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | |
Enterprise Value | 93,169 | 73,777 | 41,952 | 74,134 | 3,494 | 42,405 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 26,978 | 4,048 | 4,700 | 6,013 | 445 | 6,057 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 32,526 | 792 | 3,308 | 2,376 | 0 | 4,184 | |
(-) Debt | (74,860) | (31,084) | (15,660) | (52,023) | (634) | (19,138) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (84) | (1,121) | (6) | (135) | 0 | 39 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 77,729 | 46,413 | 34,295 | 30,365 | 3,304 | 33,547 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 942.2 | 1,152.3 | 3,163.8 | 1,213.2 | 94.4 | 2,976.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 82.50 | 40.28 | 10.84 | 25.03 | 34.99 | 11.27 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 82.50 | 40.28 | 10.84 | 25.03 | 34.99 | 11.27 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |