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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 1.7x - 3.7x | 2.7x |
| Fair Value | R$8.01 - R$11 | R$9.44 |
| Upside | 45.1% - 99.2% | 71.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (BRL in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 16,496 | 16,061 | 16,254 | 15,773 | 20,674 | 22,757 | 24,464 | 25,320 | 25,826 | 26,343 | 26,870 |
| % Growth | -12.6% | -2.6% | 1.2% | -3.0% | 31.1% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,972 | 5,247 | 4,785 | 4,960 | 5,400 | 11,966 | 12,986 | 13,440 | 13,709 | 13,983 | 14,263 |
| % of Revenue | 36.2% | 32.7% | 29.4% | 31.4% | 26.1% | 52.6% | 53.1% | 53.1% | 53.1% | 53.1% | 53.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (BRL in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 5,247 | 4,785 | 4,960 | 5,400 | 11,966 | 12,986 | 13,440 | 13,709 | 13,983 | 14,263 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,509 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,629) | (1,177) | (2,010) | (2,634) | (2,780) | (2,989) | (3,093) | (3,155) | (3,218) | (3,282) | |
| EBIT | 3,618 | 3,608 | 2,950 | 7,275 | 9,186 | 9,997 | 10,347 | 10,554 | 10,765 | 10,981 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (977) | (974) | (797) | (1,964) | (2,480) | (2,699) | (2,794) | (2,850) | (2,907) | (2,965) | |
| NOPAT | 3,535 | 2,641 | 2,634 | 2,154 | 5,311 | 6,706 | 7,298 | 7,553 | 7,705 | 7,859 | 8,016 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,763) | (3,732) | (4,200) | (5,188) | (5,669) | (3,100) | (3,333) | (3,449) | (3,294) | (3,359) | (3,367) |
| NWC Investment | (558) | (102) | 45 | (113) | 1,147 | 487 | 399 | 200 | 118 | 121 | 123 |
| (+) D&A | 1,130 | 1,629 | 1,177 | 2,010 | 2,634 | 2,780 | 2,989 | 3,093 | 3,155 | 3,218 | 3,282 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,344 | 436 | (344) | (1,137) | 3,423 | 6,873 | 7,353 | 7,398 | 7,684 | 7,839 | 8,054 |
| % Growth | -81% | NM | NM | NM | 101% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | |