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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.3% - 10.3% | 10.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 7.0x | 6.0x |
| Fair Value | R$163.07 - R$207.69 | R$184.59 |
| Upside | 57.1% - 100.1% | 77.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (BRL in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 10,629 | 10,841 | 11,058 | 11,279 | 11,505 | 11,735 | 11,970 | 12,209 | 12,453 | 12,702 | 12,956 |
| % Growth | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,460 | 1,291 | 1,316 | 1,343 | 1,370 | 1,397 | 1,425 | 1,453 | 1,482 | 1,512 | 1,542 |
| % of Revenue | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (BRL in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 1,291 | 1,316 | 1,343 | 1,370 | 1,397 | 1,425 | 1,453 | 1,482 | 1,512 | 1,542 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (324) | (331) | (337) | (344) | (351) | (358) | (365) | (372) | (380) | (387) | |
| EBIT | 966 | 986 | 1,005 | 1,026 | 1,046 | 1,067 | 1,088 | 1,110 | 1,132 | 1,155 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (242) | (246) | (251) | (256) | (262) | (267) | (272) | (278) | (283) | (289) | |
| NOPAT | 843 | 725 | 739 | 754 | 769 | 785 | 800 | 816 | 833 | 849 | 866 |
| Capital Expenditures | (34) | (35) | (41) | (42) | (42) | (43) | (42) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) |
| NWC Investment | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) |
| (+) D&A | 336 | 324 | 331 | 337 | 344 | 351 | 358 | 365 | 372 | 380 | 387 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,138 | 1,008 | 1,023 | 1,044 | 1,065 | 1,086 | 1,110 | 1,132 | 1,156 | 1,180 | 1,204 |
| % Growth | -11% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |