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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.3% - 10.3% | 10.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.7x | 0.7x |
Fair Value | R$138.58 - R$158.48 | R$148.36 |
Upside | 44.4% - 65.1% | 54.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 10,629 | 10,841 | 11,058 | 11,279 | 11,505 | 11,735 |
% Growth | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,460 | 1,291 | 1,316 | 1,343 | 1,370 | 1,397 |
% of Revenue | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 1,291 | 1,316 | 1,343 | 1,370 | 1,397 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (324) | (331) | (337) | (344) | (351) | |
EBIT | 966 | 986 | 1,005 | 1,026 | 1,046 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (242) | (246) | (251) | (256) | (262) | |
NOPAT | 843 | 725 | 739 | 754 | 769 | 785 |
Capital Expenditures | (34) | (35) | (41) | (42) | (42) | (43) |
NWC Investment | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
(+) D&A | 336 | 324 | 331 | 337 | 344 | 351 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,138 | 1,008 | 1,023 | 1,044 | 1,065 | 1,086 |
% Growth | -11% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% |