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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.1x - 6.1x | 5.1x |
Fair Value | R$124.23 - R$180.74 | R$151.93 |
Upside | 51.6% - 120.5% | 85.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 10,659 | 10,872 | 11,089 | 11,311 | 11,537 | 11,768 |
% Growth | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,696 | 1,417 | 1,445 | 1,474 | 1,503 | 1,534 |
% of Revenue | 15.9% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 1,417 | 1,445 | 1,474 | 1,503 | 1,534 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (330) | (337) | (343) | (350) | (357) | |
EBIT | 1,087 | 1,109 | 1,131 | 1,153 | 1,176 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (272) | (277) | (283) | (288) | (294) | |
NOPAT | 1,011 | 815 | 831 | 848 | 865 | 882 |
Capital Expenditures | (34) | (35) | (41) | (42) | (42) | (43) |
NWC Investment | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) |
(+) D&A | 347 | 330 | 337 | 343 | 350 | 357 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,317 | 1,104 | 1,121 | 1,143 | 1,166 | 1,190 |
% Growth | -16% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |